Euroconsult forecasts that traffic carried over satellite will reach close to 3.5 Tbps by 2025, with a 16% CAGR over the ten-year period.
This corresponds to an upward revision of our previous forecasts, which also takes into account the anticipated massive increase in capacity supply over the period. The leasing of larger capacity volumes will however be at the expense of lower pricing, also in a context of heightening competition and falling fill rates. While regional situations will remain diverse, we estimate that the global average capacity ARPU could be halved when expressed in MHz by 2025. This combination of higher volumes and lower pricing leads us to a capacity market value that would stand at around $14 billion by 2025 compared to $11 billion in 2015.
The last year has confirmed the transformational nature of the satellite communication sector’s current development phase, with the confirmed appeal of HTS for several user segments through the signing of capacity contracts and the announcement of broadband LEO constellation projects, even if most are still under development. Euroconsult projects total HTS capacity leased to more than triple in the next five years, supported by recently announced contracts for entire HTS payloads or beams.